Situational Analysis and Epidemic Modeling of COVID-19 in Egypt

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 Department of Epidemiology, High Institute of Public Health, Alexandria University, Egypt

2 Department of Tropical Health, High Institute of Public Health, Alexandria University, Egypt

Abstract

Background: Since its emergence in December 2019, the COVID-19 virus has spread to every continent on earth.  Countries are racing to slow down the spread of the disease. The pandemic is still ongoing and global efforts are marathoning to comprehend the virus biology, epidemiology, natural history and eventually applying the sound control measures promptly.
Objectives: The study was carried out to demonstrate the epidemiological distribution and modeling of the novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) epidemic in Egypt.
Methods: Secondary data in the situation reports of WHO, Worldometer and Egyptian MoHP Report about the COVID-19 epidemic in Egypt were analysed till April 10, 2020. Wolfram Player 12 software was used for the Susceptible Infected Recovered (SIR) epidemic dynamics of COVID-19 pandemic.
Results: The cumulative proportional survival at the end of the epidemic is expected to be 82%. Meanwhile, the transmission rate per infectious individual (β) was 0.09 and the recovery rate (γ) was 0.30. The fraction of infectious individuals is not expected to grow exponentially. The basic reproductive rate (R0) was 0.23 and the duration of infection was 2.62 days
Conclusion and recommendation: As for the available data by April 10th, 2020, Egypt COVID-19 epidemic situation is not frightening. Even though, strengthening all the mitigation efforts to keep the exposure probability, as well as the transmission rate as low as possible is mandatory for containment of the epidemic.

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